All rights reserved. The big question surrounding this company: what is going to happen to car ownership over the next several years? If so, that would imply heavier reliance upon and use of ride-hailing services like Lyft, which would be a huge win for LYFT stock and the soon-to-be-public Uber. Who is right? Right now, data suggests the former thesis is correct.
Car ownership rates are dropping, the reasons to not own a car are piling up, and access to cheaper and more convenient ride-booking services is rapidly growing. As such, it does appear that the era of widespread car ownership in the U. In short, the rise of ride-hailing and car-booking services, coupled with a rampant rise in the broader gig and sharing economy, has enabled a plethora of transportation services which have made personal car ownership less and less important and necessary.
Indeed, in many urban areas, getting from point A to point B is actually quicker and cheaper with a ride-hailing service, after you factor in parking costs and time. Data supports this thesis and, importantly, underscores that it is the majority belief among younger consumers. According to a recent survey from Cox Automotive, nearly four out of ten Americans agree that having transportation is necessary, but owning a vehicle is not.
But, the problem with this thesis is that consumers are losers when car ownership rates are high, and are actually incentivized to reduce car ownership rates going forward. Specifically, the amount of time Americans spend stuck in traffic has increased from 18 hours per year into 42 hours per year in As such, consumers are actually incentivized from a time and cost perspective to reduce the number of cars on the road. Best way to do that? Start booking transportation services. Because too many cars on the road presents huge time and cost challenges, consumers are increasingly adopting ride-hailing services to get from point A to point B.
Combing market share date from Second Measure and rider data from Lyft, one can reasonably see that the ride-hailing market in the U. Inthe ride-hailing market measured just 25 million riders in the U. Today, the market measures over 60 million riders, with a high teens addressable population penetration rate. These advantages will only grow as ride-booking companies get bigger, and the ride-hailing market will continue to grow by leaps and bounds.
Specifically, according to U. Census Bureau data, the percentage of no car households in the U.
From tothe percentage of no car households in the U. But, for the first time sincethe percentage of no car households actually increased to 9. These trends will continue. Ride-booking is only growing in popularity. As such, this trend of car ownership rates dropping will continue for the foreseeable future. Big picture conclusion? The era of widespread car ownership in the U. As of this writing, Luke Lango did not have a position in any of the aforementioned securities but may initiate a long position in LYFT within the next 72 hours.
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Sign out. About Us Our Analysts. And These 4 Charts Prove It. Compare Brokers. Click to Enlarge Source: Cox Automotive. Click to Enlarge Source: U.Despite an increase over the last years, passenger cars powered by alternative fuels, including hybrid cars, only made up a small share of the fleet of passenger cars in the EU in This is reflected by the share of cars powered by alternative fuels being low among the newly registered passenger cars.
Overall, the passenger car fleet in almost all of the EU Member States has grown over the last five years. The highest number of cars per inhabitant was recorded in Luxembourg, followed by Italy dataFinland and Malta. InPoland had by far the highest share of passenger cars older than 20 years, followed by Estonia and Finland.
Preferences with regards to petrol or diesel powered passenger cars vary across the EU Member States; amongst the Member States for which recent data are available, cars with petrol powered engines make up the majority of registered passenger cars in most countries; diesel powered passenger cars dominate in only ten Member States.
When looking at petrol and diesel engines together, medium sized engines dominated the passenger car fleet in most EU Member States; however, in Hungary and Malta the smallest engines dominated. The preferences for whether a new passenger car should be powered by a petrol or diesel engine vary across the EU Member States.
For the 21 Member States for which detailed data are available, 16 registered a higher petrol share; this is a change from the past, when a majority of Member States recorded a higher diesel share. Inthe highest shares of petrol powered cars among the new registrations were noted in the Netherlands In contrast, the highest shares of diesel cars among the new passenger cars were recorded in Croatia In the EU Member States and EFTA countries for which recent data are available, an increase in the share of new registrations of passenger cars powered by alternative fuels including hybrids can generally be observed in the period from toalthough at a low level in most countries.
Inthe highest share by far of alternative fuels in new registrations could be seen in Poland 8. Far behind followed Germany 4. The share of registration of new passenger cars powered by alternative fuel fluctuates in several countries; indeed, as can be seen from Figure 1, the share of cars with alternative fuels in the total new registrations increased from to in several countries.
One of the reasons behind this is the variety of government incentives to stimulate the share of cars with lower emissions, and the timing of when these incentives are introduced. These incentives include e. Another main influence is the number and variety of passenger car models with alternative fuel engines offered, as well as the prices of such models. Inthe highest number of registered passenger cars was observed in Germany with 46 million cars.
Thereafter followed Italy 37 million cars: data and France 32 million cars. Over the five year period from tothere was strong growth in the number of registered passenger cars in several Member States.
Only three Member States recorded a decline in the number of registered passenger cars over the period observed: France experienced a fall of 2. Consequently, Lithuanian data from onwards cannot be directly compared to data for earlier years. Luxembourg passenger cars per inhabitants heads the list; however, this figure may be influenced by cross-border workers i.Indeed, sales totaled Personal vehicle sales, which exclude sales to businesses and governments, have also rebounded strongly since the end of the recession thick blue line in figure 1.
Average Age of Cars & Trucks by Household Income and Vehicle Type over Time
Personal sales exclude sales to businesses and governments. Data are seasonally adjusted. Shaded area indicates NBER recession. Ward's AutoInfoBank. Accessible version. As sales have rebounded, some analysts have noticed a shift in the age composition of new light vehicle buyers.
Indeed, a number of recent studies and press articles have documented a dramatic decline in young adults' willingness to own vehicles, particularly in the years since the recession. For example, Fortune recently cited the decline in the fraction of new vehicles purchased by young adults--defined as 18 to 34 year olds--as evidence that financial constraints for that age group had increased and their interest in driving had decreased. Much of this analysis was published shortly after the financial crisis and the recession, when many of the so-called millennial generation were entering adulthood.
Because the financial crisis had severe and lingering effects on many household decisions, distinguishing its effects on vehicle purchases from the effects of cultural and technological changes can be quite difficult. For example, The Atlantic notes that while today's younger buyers do have some unique characteristics, they have begun looking increasingly like their older cohorts as their employment and income prospects have improved.
We show that the average age of new vehicle buyers has risen since and that these increases were biggest during the recession. Although young buyers have been purchasing new vehicles at lower rates in recent years, the two most important factors that contributed to the rise in the average age of new vehicle buyers seem to be 1 the aging of the Baby Boomers--a large group that continued to purchase new vehicles at a solid rate during and after the recession; and 2 the decline in the new vehicle purchase rate for 35 to 50 year olds over the past 10 years.
Changes in the Age Distribution of New Vehicle Sales The average age of new vehicle buyers has increased notably over the past 15 years, as shown by the two solid lines in figure 2. According to J. Average age stepped up most sharply inthe first year after the financial crisis, and it has moved sideways since the end of the recession. Some--but not all--of the increases in the average age of new vehicle buyers reflects the aging of the overall U.
According to the U. Census Bureau, the median age of U. Similarly, the average age of heads of households in the CE survey increased about 3 years not shown. The rise in the average age of new vehicle buyers during this period was roughly twice as large as the increase in the age of the overall population.A rebounding economy and cheap gas have changed the equation.
Writing at Mediumurban planner Sarah Jo Peterson looks at how trends in car ownership rates have changed over this period. Census data on the number of cars per household show that after growing for a few years, the share of car-free households in America has dropped below levels:. The boom did happen. The green and blue lines on the above chart for the United States show the dramatic growth in car-free living and families with only one car sincebut their numbers peaked in — Bythe total growth in car-free households the green dot and car-one families the blue triangle had sunk below household growth overall the black square.
The U. Between andthe only category with an increase in car-free living above the margin of error is householders age 65 or older who rent. Around 55, households led by young adults ages 15 to 34 abandoned car-free living, about twice the margin of error. Disentangling the effects of the economy, public policy, and individual preferences on driving and car ownership is a difficult task.
But the recent increase in car ownership suggests that as joblessness declines, more people feel that they need a car. It will take a much stronger public policy commitment to transit, biking, and walking before many Americans feel comfortable opting out of car ownership. Facebook Twitter Google Plus Email print. Census data on the number of cars per household show that after growing for a few years, the share of car-free households in America has dropped below levels: The boom did happen.
Have we reached peak car in America? Recently, the average number […]. Inthere were 10, motor vehicles in the United States. It took five years to multiply that number by The next fold increase took seven years, reaching one million vehicles by Just eight years later, it was 10 million.
From there, it took 47 years to get to the next milestone: America became […]. Between andthe average number of miles driven by each Arizona resident […]. Vehicle travel in the United States has experienced a resurgence in the last two-and-a-half years, following an unprecedented decade-long per-capita decline in driving.
Low gas prices are likely a big reason why; recent increases in incomes and employment as well. But an additional factor has been relatively unexplored: the effect of changes in credit markets on vehicle purchasing and ownership. For a long time in the United States, driving activity moved in step with the economy. Since economic growth was fairly steady, consistent growth in driving was built into all the traffic modeling the engineers used to plan and build streets and transportation infrastructure.
Total […]. Sign Up.This affected, to a small degree, most estimates of average expenditure. The overall impact was that average weekly household expenditure in the UK was underestimated by around 0. The error was due to the imputation of data collected through a diary being incorrect for three quarters of the financial year in the LCF. The datasets have now been corrected. We apologise for any inconvenience. Please contact carla. Previous versions of this data are available.
Home People, population and community Personal and household finances Expenditure. Contact: Tracy Williams. Release date: 24 January Next release: To be announced. About this Dataset Average weekly household expenditure on goods and services in the UK.
Data are shown by region, age, income including equivalised group deciles and quintileseconomic status, socio-economic class, housing tenure, output area classification, urban and rural areas Great Britain onlyplace of purchase and household composition. Your download option Financial year ending Download Percentage of households with cars by income group, tenure and household composition: Table A Financial year ending in xls format xls Financial year ending View all data related to Expenditure.
Contact details for this dataset Tracy Williams wealth. Publications that use this data Family spending in the UK.What is interesting in this chart is the relative rate of car ownership between states and territories.
New South Wales may reflect the relatively dense Sydney where car ownership is less important for many. But what about the most recent trends? You can see growth across all states, although there are several periods where some states flat-lined, particularly around The census reported the number of households with every number of motor vehicles 0 to 99, and here is the frequency distribution:. The following chart shows household motor vehicle ownership rates for major city areas for and boundaries changing slightly to include more peripheral areas that are likely to have higher car ownership :.
Sydney has the lowest rate of motor vehicle ownership, and Perth the highest, with Melbourne showing the least growth. While all cities had an increase in car ownership between andall but two had a reduction in car-only mode share of journeys to work. The following chart compares motor vehicle ownership rates between capital city areas and the rest of each state or territory for census data:.
So while I cannot extract trends, we can look at the patterns of car ownership rates. You can see that people aged 35 to 59 are least likely to live in households without motor vehicles, while younger adults are most likely to live in a household with limited car ownership.
There are curiously two peaks in saturated car ownership — aged and Sole person households were most likely to not own a motor vehicle. It seems Australians find car ownership a high priority if they have young children.
Other analysis on this blog found that such households also have the lowest rates of public transport use, and a very strong inverse relationship between motor vehicle ownership and public transport use. Using data from the BITRE yearbookit is possible to calculate estimated annual kms per passenger car.
America’s Car Ownership Rate Higher Now Than Before the Recession
The steeper downwards trend since is similar to the downwards trend in car passenger kms per capita in Australian cities:. Since aroundcar ownership has continued to rise while car passenger kilometres per capita has fallen. You can see motorcycle ownership rates peaked arounddipped in the mid s and have grown significantly since around although still very small. Does it explain the slowdown in the car ownership rate from ?
Motorcycle ownership took off inbut car ownership slowed in Could the data be impacted by a changing age profile? Suppose most car owners are aged 18 to 80 years. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.
You can leave a responseor trackback from your own site. I suspect the best explanation for the lack of difference between car ownership rates in Melbourne and Victoria overall is that to some extent car ownership is not a direct response to need but simply an indicator of wealth.
But it appears 60 per cent is the saturation level except in severely car-dependent places like the US. Like Like. Hi Chris, Certainly a useful post as always. As an indicator of car use, car ownership is becoming less reliable than it used to be. Clearly we own more cars per head although we seem to use them less. Meanwhile car occupancy is also declining, so we apparently use them less efficiently… It would be good to explore that in more detail!
Chris, Interesting data indicating a real shift in consumer preferences. You are right the age issues does not explain it. Looking age state specific age age graphs based on ABS estimated population the share of population aged 18 to 80 is rising but this largely driven by increases in the lower age groups for all states but WA and TAS. WIth Public transport use rising, car use and ownership falling, maybe the explanation is more closely related to the origin destination matrices.
Certainly the new jobs and employment growth industries are those located in the inner urban and more public transport accessible areas.Cars have been at the heart of American culture for more than a century.
Until recently, getting a license and buying a car were considered rites of passage, and the car you chose was widely regarded as an expression of your identity, reflecting your priorities and revealing your status. All that is now changing. The advent of car sharing, ride-hailing and self-driving vehicles presages a radical transformation in consumer behavior. The future of personal transportation will be determined by technological advances, informed by the needs and desires of the people who use them.The Active Aging (50+ Age Group) Market Is Trending
Our understanding of who those consumers are and what choices they are likely to make is changing in surprising ways. Consider baby boomers, the generation born between and They may no longer be the largest generation in the U.
What is surprising is that seniors are participating in the well-documented mass migration to urban centers. Despite the common assumption that millennials will dominate the urban landscape in the coming years, recent studies suggest that boomers are also locating there in droves.
And these older urbanites are anything but sedentary. All this activity makes urban boomers active consumers. For boomers who keep their cars in the city, ride-hailing offers a valuable source of income. A Uber study found that nearly a quarter of its drivers were older than For many, the primary motivation is extra income, often needed to supplement retirement savings.
But there are other benefits as well. Uber driver Maureen Mahon, 59, enjoys the flexibility and sociability of the work. Personal car sharing, too, is becoming attractive to some urban car-owning boomers.
Moreover, peer-to-peer car sharing firm Getaround has formed partnerships with car manufacturers to provide members with discounts on new car purchases. Of course, many of those who move to urban centers are likely to give up their cars in the process. While taxis are the traditional choice for carless boomers making short trips within the city limits, the growing presence of car-sharing and ride-hailing services is just as likely to appeal to seniors, said Wharton management professor John Paul MacDuffie.
I see them actually liking it if it solves a problem for them. Until recently, automakers had feared the inevitable loss of the boomer market. But it turned out that the concern was largely misplaced. Millennials are only now entering their peak car-buying years, the article said. They just had a late start.